Iran is a key-actor in
the new multipolar world
نویسنده : Andrea Fais
Andrea Fais (Perugia, 1984) is an Italian journalist and foreign affairs analyst. He is contributor for Chinese daily tabloid “Global Times”, Italian magazine of geopolitics “Eurasia” and Russian magazine “Journal of Eurasian Affairs”.
Geneva agreements established with 1+5 group in November 2013 could represent a breakthrough in 21st century geopolitics. Thanks to his brilliant diplomacy, president Rouhani has reached the most important goal in recent Iranian foreign policy: the legitimacy of national nuclear program. The contemporary chaos in which Erdogan's Turkey and Morsi's Egypt collapsed during summer of 2013, after one year of political Sunni hyper-activism, created ideal conditions for Iran.
Thanks to Bashar al-Assad successful management of Syrian crisis, Axis of Resistance emerged as winner against US-Saudi-Qatari alliance giving Tehran a stronger credibility not only inside Shia community but also in the rest of Muslim world. Muslim Brotherhood and Fethullah Gülen's Hizmet were defeated and definetly lost all their plausibility in front of the Ummah. Their clear links and connections with US government and their ambivalent relationships with Israel made the rest. Wahhabi-oriented monarchist regimes still represent dangerous promoters of extremism, terrorism and intollerance but their mono-sectorial economies will never build serious model of development which other Muslim states can refer to.
The important heritage of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
In Europe former president Ahmadinejad has been often seen as an enemy and a dangerous leader. This perception was clearly the result of an artificial operation aimed to damage the credibility of the country in the West. In truth Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has the unquestionable credit to have accelerated the modernization of Iran in terms of national development in the fields of economy, technology and military affairs. Moreover his 8-years presidential term has been crucial inside the general process of multipolarization of world politics, establishing a new era of international cooperation. Firstable, he has begun and strenghtened closer ties with actors like Russia or Turkey, traditionally hostile to Iran/Persia in the past. Second, he has built a determinant South-South network with China and Venezuela, giving Non-Aligned Countries Conference a new and more concrete political meaning after its weakening due to the end of the Cold War.
Nevertheless he led the government in a very hard stage for Iran, a stage characterized by US global hegemonism as an heritage of post-9/11 Washington foreign policy. George W. Bush's War on Terror strategy and Donald Rumsfeld's Pre-Emptive War doctrine were perfectly aligned with Israeli interests in the Middle East, ensuring Tel Aviv a loyal support and including Iran in the so-called “rogue states” list. At that time European public opinion was heavily influenced by this status-quo and considered the fake horrific image of Iran painted by mainstream media as true.
Nowadays, after the failure of Arab Spring, Western contradictions are emerged and Barack Obama is in a critical position. Firstable, US support to terrorist activities in Syria unveiled the truth about Washington-Ryad connection. Second, Datagate denounced by former NSA agent Edward Snowden has shown a dangerous situation signed by a rising distrust between the two sides of Atlantic Ocean. Third, the economic crisis of EU caused a significant loss of credibility for European institutions and forced important economies like Germany and France to open their markets to non-EU actors like BRICS, in spite of Brussels attempts to impose unequal antidumping duties against emerging economies.
Rouhani's “Carpe diem”
President Rouhani has brilliantly taken an advantage of this international situation, accepting the dialogue with Western powers just when they are significantly weaker. Western observers welcomed the electoral victory of reformist wings with satisfaction, believing that Rouhani could keep a softer attitude towards US and EU. However most of them considered this softer attitude as a yielding and not as a mutual opening. On the contrary Iranian government held its positions on nuclear issue steady, obtaining a clear victory.
Geneva agreements represent not only the approval of the Iranian atomic program but also a legitimacy of Iranian Islamic Republic in front of international community. After Geneva, Iran is no more the “rogue state” or the “ferocious dictatorship” which US and EU talked about for almost ten years, exploiting inner affairs to create international hostile propaganda campaigns or supporting extremist movements aimed to destabilize the country. Now Western nations must recognize the sovereignty of Iran after several years of unequal sanctions and military threats. Without that political distortion, also in front of European public opinion Iran is now a legitimate regional power, a country which claims for dialogue, peace and unity in Muslim world, one of the most important oil world producers, with a rising ability in terms of economic diversification which distinguishes it from the other obsolete Gulf economies. In a few words, Iran is at full scale an essential pivot between Inner Asia and the Middle East and so a key-actor along the new re-emerging Silkroad.
Perspectives in EU-Iran cooperation
At the same time, European countries become potential partners for Iran in terms of economy and technology abandoning their traditional compliant attitude towards Israel. In 2006 Italy has been the first European economic partner of Iran while in 2008 trade volume between the two countries reached € 6 billions, mainly concerning raw materials and car industry sectors. After oil embargo against Iran in 2012, ENI and other Italian state-owned and private companies were forced to abandon the country and stop their activities with huge negative consequences on Italian economy. After Foreign Affairs Minister Emma Bonino visited Tehran, these essential commercial channels have been finally reopened starting from oil and gas market as recently wished by ENI Managing Director Paolo Scaroni and Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijian Namdar Zangeneh during a meeting in Wien.
Italy was urgently needing for new import sources after the annulment of Bengasi Treaty (signed by former PM Silvio Berlusconi and former Libyan president Muammar Gaddafi in summer of 2008), due to the devastating NATO military operations which made Libya collapse in a geopolitical chaos where foreign invaders and Salafi-Wahhabi terrorist fighters established a new law of the jungle.
Libyan example represents a hard precedent which any other non-Western state should look at. In fact EU has not a common foreign policy yet: firstable, because every nation seems to be still anchored to its own past and its own interest; second, because Washington still keeps the stronger decisional power according to NATO hierarchy.
So Iran should be very careful to establish different ties with every single European country valuing their respective levels of reliability on a case-by-case basis. Opening to West in economy and technology fields could be positive but it should be followed by a strong political leadership able to control and select foreign investments inside the country, especially in financial sector, and a modern national army with efficient military capabilities due to a qualified defense industry. Since Khomeini's Revolution in 1979, Iranian model of national development has demonstrated its functionality, so reaching these goals will be an easy task for president Rouhani.
The heritage of Mossadeq-Mattei friendship for dialogue and mutual respect
US and Israeli arrogance has ruined and compromised dialogue and mutual comprehension between Iran and Europe for a long time. Italy was maybe the most damaged country in the last decades because of the deterioration of relationships between Tehran and the West. 1953's CIA-led Ajax Operation has overthrown former PM Mohammed Mossadeq after his decision to nationalize Iranian oil with the support of former ENI president Enrico Mattei. At that time the so called ENI-model represented a revolutionary way in international cooperation, based on a concrete idea of mutual respect and win-win strategy. Both Mossadeq and Mattei payed a high price for their work and political willings. Nowadays world is finally changing and the present process of multipolarization could allow our countries to fully realize that cooperation plan to favor mutual exchange and comprehension between Iran and Italy.
Rome and Tehran represent the whombs of two great forms of civilization, the centers of two empires which contributed to write some essential pages of world history. Thanks to modern-man conquests in sectors of science and technology, new forms of dialogue could re-open the ancient Silkroad, disappeared and forgotten five centuries ago due to the primacy of sea-power.